What cities belong in Dwayne Johnson's XFL?

Former sports journalist Stephen H. Provost is the author of “A Whole Different League,” a history of alternative sports leagues in the United States, and “The Legend of Molly Bolin,” the biography of a women’s basketball’s first pro superstar. Both are available on Amazon.

With news that the XFL may be returning for a third try under Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s ownership, it’s time to re-evaluate the league’s choice of host cities for its teams. Some were hits; others, not so much.

The XFL pursued a strategy of placing teams in major cities, unlike the Alliance of American Football, which had several franchises in smaller markets. Which approach worked better? It’s a mixed bag, which just shows that a city-by-city analysis makes more sense.

The AAF shared two cities with the NFL — Atlanta and Phoenix — and the teams that played there were two of the three least popular teams in the league when it comes to attendance. Atlanta barely averaged 10,000 fans over four games, and Arizona drew that many just once.

In the XFL, attendance was lowest in the league’s two biggest markets, Los Angeles (13,127 average) and New York (14,875). That should make The Rock think twice about staying there. Is he stuck there because of the old maxim that big markets are necessary for TV? Not necessarily. Games involving those two teams weren’t any higher — and, in some cases, were lower — than they were for games involving smaller-market teams.

So where do you start in evaluating where the XFL should stay and where it should move out? That’s easy.

St. Louis and Seattle were the league’s two big success stories when it comes to attendance, so it’s a no-brainer to keep those franchises right where they are.

Here’s what I would suggest when it comes to the lineup that’s most primed for success:

San Antonio

The XFL had two teams in Texas during 2020, but it ignored the most obvious market. San Antonio’s population is smaller than either Houston or Dallas, but that’s a bit deceptive because nearby Austin is nearly as big — and both cities are growing fast. The biggest point in the Alamo city’s favor is its success in the AAF, where the Commodores averaged nearly 28,000 fans in four home games, even topping 30,000 in Week 7.

The city’s big-league presence is limited to the Spurs, so there’s less competition for the sports entertainment dollar. The Spurs rank in the top half of the NBA’s attendance list and have thrived in San Antonio for more than 40 years since moving from Dallas. The XFL would be well-served to consider following that example and moving the Dallas Renegades south.

St. Louis

The BattleHawks drew more than 57,000 fans in two home dates — more than the number of fans who attended THREE games in Dallas, DC, Houston, or L.A.

St. Louis was clearly starved for football after the Rams’ departure, and the fans turned out in force to fill the void. The per-game average of 28,541 topped the league. Yes, the two-game sample is small, but it’s still a ringing endorsement for spring football in St. Louis.

Seattle

The Dragons drew more than 29,000 to their home opener, and even though their follow-up home date was down by 7,000 fans, that was still the fourth-best number of the year (St. Louis had the other two).

Seattle is one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL — its fans are among the loudest and most enthusiastic. That bodes well for the XFL staying there.

San Francisco-Oakland

The San Francisco Demons were, hands down, the attendance success story of the XFL’s first incarnation, back in 2001. They averaged just over 35,000 fans a game, more than any team in XFL 2.0 or the AAF. Yes, that was 20 years ago, but the market offers a prime opportunity for the XFL now that the Raiders have abandoned Oakland for Vegas.

The success of St. Louis shows that moving in to a market abandoned by the NFL can be a solid strategy. The Bay Area offers the perfect opportunity to do just that. Plus, wouldn’t it be cool to bring the Invaders nickname back from the USFL dead?

San Diego

This is another fairly large market abandoned by the NFL, and one that drew fairly well for the AAF. The San Diego Fleet drew at least 20,000 for three of the team’s four home games and ranked third in the league when it came to attendance.

This was true even though a lot of football fans soured on the sport after the Chargers jumped ship for L.A. Another couple of years should have eased that resentment and could pave the way for a successful return to the market via the XFL. You could even call them the Thunderbolts.

Tampa Bay-Orlando

The Tampa Bay Vipers drew a respectable 18,117 for their home opener, but that dropped by nearly one-third the following week. But it’s worth keeping a couple of things in mind. First, the team won just once in its five games, so they weren’t much of an attraction. Second, Tampa Bay has a history as a strong football market: The Tampa Bay Bandits ranked first or second in the USFL each of that league’s three years.

Yes, that was nearly 40 years ago, and the Bandits had perhaps the USFL’s most competent ownership. But the market still deserves a place on the XFL roster. But why not expand the fan base by playing a game or two in Orlando, testing the water there? The Orlando Apollos ranked second at the gate in the AAF, drawing nearly 20,000 fans a game. Whether it’s Tampa Bay, Orlando, or some combination (even both!), Florida should be in the XFL 3.0.

Houston

The Roughnecks boasted the third-highest average attendance in the XFL over three home dates, although they never cracked 20,000. They had the league’s most effective and exciting quarterback by a long way in P.J. Walker, who won’t be back. That makes the city a bit of a gamble — pun intended (remember the USFL’s Houston Gamblers?).

The city has a mixed record when it comes to football. It lost the Oilers to Tennessee. The Gamblers finished in the middle of the attendance pack in the USFL, despite the most exciting offense and having future four-time Super Bowl QB Jim Kelly in the fold. The bet here is that the team built enough of a following with Walker under center to have developed a fan base. A second season would provide more data to determine the franchise’s long-term staying power.

That gives us seven teams. Finding the eighth isn’t as easy. Los Angeles and New York didn’t build much of a following in 2020, and the DC Defenders didn’t burn up the turnstiles, either, barely averaging 16,000 fans. A case could be made for keeping any of those teams where they are: L.A. and the Big Apple for prestige’s sake; DC as an alternative to the turmoil-ridden Washington Football Team.

If the XFL decided to go a different direction, here are five possibilities that might make sense, listed in order of desirability.

Denver

The Mile-High City has a lot of football fans: The NFL’s Broncos have been successful there for 60 years. The Denver Gold led the USFL in attendance during that league’s first season, and ranked fifth in their sophomore year.

The city also has a large and growing attendance base. Denver’s a top-20 metro area in terms of population, and there aren’t any other pro football teams within hundreds of miles. Colorado Springs, with three-quarters of a million people is just 70 miles down the road. Denver would make a sensible addition to the XFL roster. It’s also a great opportunity to bring back the Denver Dynamite nickname used in Arena Football.

Portland

Portland is the 25th-largest metro area in the U.S., just behind San Antonio, and there’s not much competition there for the sports entertainment dollar: The Trail Blazers in the NBA are the market’s only big-league team (unless you count the Portland Timbers of Major League Soccer).

Portland would make a natural rival for the Seattle Dragons in the Pacific Northwest and would create another level of excitement there. The Portland Breakers of the USFL had a great nickname that could be resurrected for the XFL.

Raleigh-Greensboro

Together with Durham and Chapel Hill, Raleigh boasts some 2 million residents and already has a big-league team, the NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes. It’s also one of the fastest-growing regions in the U.S., at more than 23% between 2010 and 2019.

Greensboro, 81 miles to the west, is part of another growing metro area, the Piedmont Triad, with an estimated population of 1.6 million as of 2012. It’s fertile ground for football expansion.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma City is a little smaller (1.4 million in the metro area) than some other markets, but it’s growing and already has a big-league presence with the NBA’s Thunder. Plus, Tulsa, with nearly a million more people, is less than two hours away.

Oklahoma has a history of supporting college football, and a team in the state would make a natural rival for the league’s Texas entries.

Mexico City

This is a stretch, but if the XFL wanted to make a splash and go out on a limb, Mexico City could be a great opportunity. An NFL game between the 49ers and Cardinals drew 103,000 fans in 2005, a record for the established league, which has played several games there over the years. The challenge would be to sustain interest in a second-tier league and to cover travel costs, since Mexico City is 750 miles from the closest XFL city, Houston.