Why it's time for the NFL to realign, and how it could look
Stephen H. Provost
The pathetic performance of the NFC East so far this year (apart from a recent surge by the New York Giants) has made a flaw in the NFL’s divisional alignment more obvious than ever.
Specifically: It’s possible that a team with a losing record will make the playoffs by winning its division.
It’s happened before. The 2015 Carolina Panthers “won” the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record and made the playoffs as a result. They even won their first-round game against the Arizona Cardinals, who were probably pissed as hell they’d got beaten by a team that shouldn’t even have been there in the first place.
The 2010 Seattle Seahawks were even worse, winning the NFC West with a 7-9 record. Not only do division winners make the playoffs, even with shabby records, they qualify to host first-round games. No city has a bigger advantage in this regard than Seattle, where notoriously rowdy fans can tip the scales in the Seahawks’ favor. Like the Panthers, they won their first-round game, against no less a team than the defending Super Bowl champion Saints.
Whether a division champion has a winning record or not, that team will still receive a higher seed than a team that has a better record but failed to win its division. Last year, for example, the Philadelphia Eagles opened at home against the Seahawks because they won the NFC East, even though their 9-7 record was two games worse than Seattle’s 11-5.
An alternative
Is this really fair?
Of course not. But because the NFL has so many divisions — eight of them in all — one quarter of its franchises will with their divisions.
Before going to the eight-division format, the NFL had six divisions (three in each conference). It realigned in 2002 when it added the Houston Texans, its most recent expansion team, making the new 32-team league easily divisible by eight. Previously, there had been five five-team divisions and one with six teams.
As the New York Giants and Washington lead the NFC East with 5-7 records and four games remaining, is it time to consider returning to the six-division format? It would be a great excuse to reshuffle the divisions and create some exciting new rivalries.
Imagine, for example, the Los Angeles Rams and Chargers playing each other twice a year. Or the New York teams. The Texans and the Cowboys. Washington and Baltimore. It would boost regional interest to new levels.
New alignment
Here’s what a new alignment could look like, with some speculation on expansion possibilities down the road:
Northeast
Buffalo
Cleveland
Detroit
Pittsburgh
New England
This division takes teams from three current divisions . Four eastern Great Lakes region teams would face off in a series of hard-fought rivalries. Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland are all within about 250 miles of one another. The division hearkens back to the days when the industrial northeast was the cradle of football. The most obvious expansion target in this region is Toronto, provided it’s approved by the Canadian government.
Southeast
Atlanta
Carolina
Jacksonville
Miami
Tampa
Tennessee
Here’s a Deep South division with all three Florida teams together in the same division. It preserves the Atlanta-Carolina rivalry from the NFC South, while creating a natural Tennessee-Carolina rivalry. It’s almost like a miniature pro version of college’s SEC. The best expansion target in this region is probably Birmingham, in which case Carolina would probably be shifted to the Atlantic Division.
Pacific
Las Vegas
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco
Seattle
California’s three teams form the core of this division, with the L.A. teams playing each other, and San Francisco twice a year. It’s rivalry heaven. Not to mention the Las Vegas-L.A. dynamic. In the event of expansion, a Portland team would provide the perfect rival for the Seahawks. The NFL could also return to Oakland or add a team in Sacramento as a foil for the 49ers.
Atlantic
Baltimore
New York Giants
New York Jets
Philadelphia
Washington
Washington and Baltimore are just 35 miles apart, so putting them in the same division is a natural. The same with the Jets and Giants. In fact, this division is so compact that all the teams are within a couple of hundred miles of one another. Norfolk/Virginia Beach would be a great expansion possibility. This is also where a London team could land if the NFL went that long-rumored route.
Midwest
Chicago
Cincinnati*
Green Bay
Indianapolis
Kansas City
Minnesota
In the short term, wouldn’t it be fascinating to have Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in the same division (not to mention Joe Burrow, if he’s healthy)? This preserves the three best teams from the NFC’s “Black and Blue” division, leaving out only Detroit. The Lions’ traditional Thanksgiving Day matchup rotating among Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay would maintain those rivalries.
*Cincinnati could also be placed in the Northeast to preserve its rivalry with Cleveland; this division would be the logical home for a St. Louis expansion franchise, which would be a natural rival for the Chiefs.
Southwest
Arizona
Dallas
Denver
Houston
New Orleans
This division introduces a twice-a-year matchup between the two Texas teams in one of football’s most rabid states. Yes, it sacrifices the Washington-Dallas rivalry, but that’s been in decline for more than two decades as those teams have floundered. It could be preserved in an annual Thanksgiving Day tilt. New Orleans is a natural rival to both of them, while Arizona and Denver create another new rivalry.
There are plenty of expansion possibilities here: Salt Lake City, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, Albuquerque, or even Mexico City, if the NFL decided to head south of the border for more than just exhibitions.
How would these divisions would be placed in the two conferences? The league might want to divide up the major markets by putting the L.A. teams in one and the New York franchises in the other. It could even get creative and make the one a “western” conference and the other an “eastern” conference: The Atlantic, Northeast, and Southeast divisions could be in the east, with the Midwest, Southwest, and Pacific Divisions in the west. However it worked out, the league would probably want to have one six-team division in each conference.
As it is, the NFL has the smallest divisions (and the greatest number of them) of any pro sport. Baseball and basketball both have six five-team divisions, formats that look similar to my proposed football realignment; the NHL will have four eight-team divisions with the addition of Seattle; and Major League Soccer has just two conferences, with 12 and 14 teams, respectively.
Reverting to six divisions makes a lot of sense for the NFL and opens up a slew of possibilities. The league almost certainly won’t do it. But that doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea.
Stephen H. Provost is a former sports editor at two daily newspapers and the author of 30 books, including A Whole Different League and The Legend of Molly Bolin.