What now for Trumpism? Look for these 3 things

Donald Trump’s loss to Joe Biden exposed him as the very thing he has vowed never to become: a loser. And not just any loser: To borrow a phrase from Trump’s reality TV universe, the biggest loser. More people voted for Biden than anyone else.

In light of Trump’s loss, the question has arisen: What now for Trumpism? If history is any guide, these three things will happen.

It will recede

Because Trump’s supporters have been so unwavering, it’s tempting to refer to them in monolithic terms as “his base.” But this is misleading — just as it’s misleading to refer to things like the “Hispanic vote,” the “women’s vote” or the “youth vote.”  In Florida, for example, Puerto Ricans overwhelmingly supported Biden, but voters of Cuban heritage broke big for Trump.

Trump’s base is, similarly, not as homogenous as it might appear from a distance. Broadly, it consists of two groups:

True believers who hold a cultish personal allegiance to Trump.

Supporters who have continued to follow Trump because he’s been a “winner” — an effective advocate for their position.

These two groups will have radically different responses to Trump’s loss. Members of the Trump cult will do what he consistently does in the face of defeat: They’ll deny it’s real, and they’ll double down or triple down.

Like doomsday cultists whose “end of the world” prediction has come and gone, they’ll just set a new date and start over. They won’t look back or admit they’ve made a mistake, because preparing for Armageddon has become their raison d’être. They’ll simply redefine it, in the same way Trump himself redefines “winning” when he loses.

But a larger group of Trump’s supporters won’t accept this. They’ve been willing to do so thus far because he’s been the president. They’ve stuck with him, even when he’s lost skirmishes, because he’s still been the world’s biggest winner by virtue of the office he holds. That won’t be true anymore, and it will make a huge difference.

If you need evidence, look no further than how he gained support in the first place: GOP lawmakers and pundits flocked to him when he won the 2016 nomination — even if they’d vigorously opposed him before. He cemented their fealty by demanding their personal loyalty, but he could only do so because he had something they wanted.

Will he still have something they want come Jan. 20? Perhaps. He’ll still have rabid, die-hard followers. But he won’t have the thing that really made the difference: the presidency. And that will make a difference, just as it made a difference when he won the first time. Steadfast opponents such as Sens. Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and conservative talk guru Mark Levin, suddenly became fierce defenders.

But transactional politics goes both ways. If Trump no longer can offer them what they need to further their own interests, they’ll look for someone else who can.

The true believers will still be around, and they’ll still be vocal, but they’ll recede from the mainstream and retreat to the niches from which they came — conservative talk radio, Second Amendment “militias,” and white supremacist groups.

It will endure

But for how long?

Although Trumpism is unlikely to be the force it is today, it will remain relevant to a greater or lesser extent in the immediate future. The question is, for how long?

Ross Perot tried to transform his movement into a third political party, but the Reform Party never took off. His followers were less interested in his ideas if he wasn’t at the forefront of promoting them, and third parties have never been viable long term in the current system.

If Trumpism remains within the Republican fold, it will continue to have some relevance in the immediate future. But as soon as a new charismatic leader emerges, it will fade into the background —as the Tea Party did with the advent of Trumpism — or disappear entirely.

If Trump attempts to bolt the party and continue promoting himself as a “cult of personality”-type political figure, he’ll likely be able to do so in the short term. But Perot’s example is instructive: The novelty quickly wore off. In addition, at 74 years of age, Trump has a limited window for remaining a political force. Younger leaders, many of whom crave the spotlight themselves (Tucker Carlson, anyone?) will elbow him aside and claim it for their own.

They’ll rebrand Trumpism in their own image, perhaps using Trump as a convenient symbol of their movement, the way Republicans have long appealed to Ronald Reagan as a conservative icon. But Trump himself will eventually be left behind, and the party will move on to the next big thing. Remember, GOP leaders didn’t like him much in the first place; they’ll be glad to be rid of him, even if they don’t say so.

It will adapt

Trump’s hardcore supporters will likely follow him to his next venture: probably some media project. But for many of his backers, it will no longer be about Trump first and foremost. He’ll become one of a number of voices competing for attention across the conservative spectrum.

It may happen gradually, but Trump supporters will stop identifying with him specifically and will move back toward the causes that energize them: white supremacy, gun rights, etc. They may take on different names and forge new alliances, either seeking a way back into the mainstream or — in more extreme cases — hunkering down in a resistance mentality.

Just as the Tea Party paved the way for Trumpism and the KKK set the stage for the Proud Boys and Aryan Nations, Trumpism will give way to something else.

Trump himself will likely become a sort of emeritus figure, revered in an abstract sense and as a sort of “emeritus” voice of the movement, but he’ll never again have the same sort of clout he enjoyed as president (unless he’s elected again, or one of his children is).

History doesn’t look kindly on populist leaders, because they largely appeal to their time and lack relevance once it’s passed. They thrive in the fires of their own rhetoric, but when cooler heads prevail, they’re largely forgotten.

Historians remember names like Huey Long and William Jennings Bryan, but few others do. Trump’s name will endure longer in the public consciousness, simply because he attained the highest office in the land... but only for that reason. And it’s unlikely that history will look kindly on what he has achieved — or how he’s achieved it.