Before I did anything else for a living, I was a sportswriter. (Well, I washed dishes at a pizza place for three months, but I don’t count that.) And I’ve been following alternative sports leagues for most of my life, so naturally, the XFL drew my interest – just as the Alliance of American Football did last year.

I was bummed when the AAF folded eight weeks into its only season, just two weeks shy of the playoffs. I felt cheated. I live within driving distance of the Carolina Hurricanes, but I haven’t been to a single game of theirs because I’m still disgusted that their owner’s the guy who pulled the plug on the Alliance.

That said, I think I like the XFL better. Does that mean it has a chance to succeed where the Alliance and other offseason football leagues (WFL, USFL, Arena Football) ultimately failed? I think so. But how much of a chance? Read on.

Why the XFL might succeed

1. The Gambling

The XFL, like the AAF, is putting some of its eggs in the gambling basket, hoping that point spreads and over-under odds will stoke viewers’ interest. Sports fans love to gamble, and the XFL itself is gambling this will draw them in. It might.

The odds shift during the games, and the announcers make note of them, reminding viewers they can still get in on the action. This is either intriguing, if you like to gamble, or annoying as hell if you don’t and have tuned in just to watch football. I’m in the latter camp, so it doesn’t interest me, but it could build the kind of sustained interest the league needs to survive.

Obstacle No. 1: People don’t know as much about the teams or their players as they do about an established commodity like the NFL. And gamblers tend to be less willing to part with their money over unknowns.

Obstacle No. 2: If the XFL lasts more than one season, the odds are (pun intended) the commodity will remain in flux because players will be coming and going. That’s how it works in minor league baseball, and the XFL is, for all intents and purposes, a minor league – players view it as a potential stepping stone to the big time, not a place they want to hang their hats indefinitely.

2. The Markets

A few weeks into its first season, it’s already obvious the XFL has something the AAF was never quite able to establish: a professional look. It may be a minor league, but it looks a lot more like the NFL than the Alliance ever did.

There are a few reasons for this. First, it’s playing in prime media markets. Alliance teams were scattered in places like Salt Lake City, Birmingham and Orlando. No offense to those three cities, but they have precisely one big-time sports franchise among them (the Orlando Magic in the NBA). The XFL, by contrast, is in nine current NFL cities and one former site (St. Louis).

This means two things: First, it looks like it’s a top-tier endeavor, and second, it’s banking on sustaining interest that’s already there, thanks to the NFL, immediately after the NFL season ends.

There’s already talk of expansion, as there inevitably is with new leagues. But the league needs to make sure its founding members are stable first. Remember the World Football League, where franchises pulled up stakes overnight and moved (from Houston to Shreveport, New York to Charlotte) or folded altogether? That kills credibility. The USFL made the mistake of expanding too much too fast.

If I were the XFL, I’d look at maybe two sites for expansion if things are stable after Season 1. Prime candidates? I’d look the Bay Area, which is losing the Raiders and was the top attendance market for the XFL in its first incarnation. (The San Francisco Demons averaged 35,000 fans, more than any current XFL team is drawing.) I’d also consider San Antonio, the Alliance’s top draw, although a third team in Texas might be a bit much.

San Diego would be a great market if the Chargers’ betrayal hadn’t soured so many fans there on football in general, as witnessed by the tepid interest in the Alliance’s Fleet. One mildly hopeful sign for the XFL: the Los Angeles Wildcats drew 14,000 fans to their first game at Dignity Sports Park, where fewer home fans than road-team boosters showed up to watch the Los Angeles Chargers.

3. The TV Deal

The XFL also seems more like the big time because it’s on major television networks like ABC, ESPN and Fox. That’s something most spring football leagues can’t say. And all four of the league’s games are televised every week to everyone with access to those networks. That’s something even the NFL can’t say.

I remember when the old WFL was consigned to something called the TVS sports network, a syndicated outfit. It wasn’t exactly prime time. The USFL had a better deal, but left a four-year contract with ABC on the table to pursue Donald Trump’s (yes, that Donald Trump) ill-conceived fall strategy of competing head-to-head with the NFL in 1986.

If the XFL can keep its current television deal, it’s got a leg up on most of the leagues that came before it. That, of course, requires that it continues to get decent ratings, something the Alliance failed to sustain.

4. The Gimmicks

The XFL, like most alternative football leagues, has a few gimmicks designed to make the game more interesting. Unlike some of those other leagues, it’s chosen some good ones.

The main goal is to make the game more exciting and high-scoring, which is kind of the opposite of what the original XFL did (the idea there was to make it a sort of smash-mouth little brother to pro wrestling, minus the fixed storylines).

Teams have to kick off from the 30, and kickoffs into the end zone are brought back to the 35. If they go out of bounds, the ball comes all the way back to the kicking team’s 45! Punts outside the field of play are similarly discouraged, making it more likely teams will go for it on fourth down.

There’s also a cool 3-2-1 option on points after touchdown, which helps keep games within reach for trailing teams and adds an interesting element of strategy. The one thing coaches don’t seem to have figured out yet is that a 3-pointer from the 10-yard-line may be easier than going for 2 from the 5: You’re likely to throw for it in either case, and if you’re at the 10, you’ve got more real estate for receivers to run their routes.

Another cool innovation is that the clock stops after every play in the final two minutes of each half, which gives the trailing team a better chance of coming back to win – and keeps viewers engaged until the end. Up until that time, however, the play clock is just 25 seconds, which speeds up the game (although it probably tires out players a lot faster).

Despite all this, games haven’t been wild scoring affairs, largely because the teams didn’t have much practice time before it got started and the talent level just isn’t what it is in the NFL. Imagine what Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers would do with these rules. You might see a score like Saints 64, Packers 59.

5. The Deep Pockets

League founder Vince McMahon of WWE fame is loaded, and he says he’s willing to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the league.

If he does, that could help the XFL weather any early difficulties.

But that’s a big “if.” McMahon pulled the plug on the XFL after just one season the first time he tried this, back in 2001. And just last year, Tom Dundon swooped in and promised a $250 million infusion for the Alliance – only to renege and leave the AAF high and dry. I get it. Even guys with a lot of money don’t want to waste it (unless your name’s Bloomberg and you’re running for president).

But the point is, big money is no guarantee of success for spring leagues. On the other hand, not having big money is pretty much a guarantee of failure. So the XFL still has an advantage, at least for now.

Why the XFL will likely fail

With all that going for it, the XFL has got to survive, right? Not necessarily. In fact, it probably won’t. Call me a cynic, but the league has two very big things going against it.

1. History

Alternative sports leagues just don’t make it. Yes, there’s the old AFL, but it didn’t survive on its own – it forced a merger with the NFL (its predecessor, the AAFC, did the same thing). The WNBA is doing well, but it’s bankrolled by the NBA. The first women’s pro basketball league had exciting stars like Ann Meyers, the high-scoring Molly Bolin and Nancy Lieberman, but it lasted only three years.

The sports landscape is littered with alternative leagues that didn’t make it. The WFL, USFL, Federal League (baseball), Major Indoor Soccer League, Arena Football League, National Bowling League... The list goes on and on.

Why should the XFL be any different? You might point to the reasons above, but then there’s the reason below:

2. Attention Spans

More now than ever before, they’re limited. In the Twitter world, people glance at something for a few seconds, and if it doesn’t hold their interest, they’re on to the next thing.

The Alliance learned that last year. It had a lot of interest the first week, but after that, TV ratings fell off a cliff and attendance was lackluster. There was a time when Arena Football had a sort of cool cachet, back in the ’90s when future NFL Hall of Famer Kurt Warner was slinging passes for the Iowa Barnstormers, but it dwindled to four or five teams before vanishing last year. Hardly anyone even noticed.

The XFL’s attendance has been only marginally better than the AAF’s so far, and McMahon’s deep pockets will only sustain it for so long. The fact that the hoped-for scoring binges haven’t materialized is another worrying sign. But even high-scoring games didn’t save Arena Football.

I’ll probably keep watching the XFL this season, just because I enjoy football and I’m fascinated to see how this all plays out. I’m just not sure if there are enough oddballs like me out there to keep the league going.

I hope so, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Featured photo of a New York Guardians XFL game at Met Life Stadium by Ajay Suresh, used under a Creative Commons 2.0 license.